Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (21 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.3 m	212 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	2,037

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	21 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	21 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	21 Feb 2024 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	202,013	+
	Indonesia	176,722
	Papua New Guinea	23,628
	Australia	1,662
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	7,425,348	+
	Indonesia	7,084,881
	Papua New Guinea	335,623
	Australia	4,843

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	117	Few people			-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	127	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	141	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	107	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	103	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
22	21 Feb 2024 00:00	53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	21 Feb 2024 06:00	69	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
24	21 Feb 2024 12:00	332	200 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Wyndham, Australia. This height is estimated for 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Wyndham	Australia	0.3
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Derby	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:45	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:45	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:45	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:30	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:45	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:45	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:45	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:15	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:15	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:15	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 16:15	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:15	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:15	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:15	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:15	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 13:30	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:45	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:45	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:45	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 17:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 15:00	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:15	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:30	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:45	Derby	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 14:45	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Saibai	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Davis	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Germein	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Pirie	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Solomontown	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Telowie	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Bonython	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Dauan	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Jow	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Haslam	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Augusta	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:00	Stirling North	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Cape York	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Per	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Amborip	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Semisir	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Salinau	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 16:30	Semaras	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Streaky Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Wallaroo	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 12:30	Tickera	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.