Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	47 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (17 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	47 km/h	0.8 m	161 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	243,779	+
	Indonesia	229,597
	Papua New Guinea	12,552
	Australia	1,629
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	24,904,711	+
	Indonesia	23,272,271
	Papua New Guinea	1,627,293
	Australia	5,145

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	305	240 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Numbulwar, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.8
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.8
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Karumba	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Gove	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Boigu	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Anansai	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Badu	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Dauan	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Derby	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	The Palms	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Parap	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Darwin	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Nightcliff	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Ludmilla	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Bagot	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Leanyer	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Berrimah	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Saibai	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Derby	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Dokib	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Komoran	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Dodalim	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Yulbabuti	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Kandala Jawal	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Seisia	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Selemit	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Wan	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Konerau	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:45	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Kladar	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Sabon	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Tor	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:45	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 13:15	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Port Augusta	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Stirling North	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:45	Birab	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Jow	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Port Davis	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Port Germein	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Port Pirie	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Solomontown	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Telowie	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 15:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Port Bonython	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Per	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 14:45	Amborip	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Agats	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:15	Jofar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Whyalla	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 14:15	Minjilang	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:30	Salebe	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:30	Modan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:15	Wyndham	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:30	Amamapare	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Sewer	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Karwai	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Kedjabi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Karaum	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Keojabi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:00	Ndapurutiri	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:00	Dosi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Moha	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Marlasi	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Masidan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Komfane	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 15:45	Bendjoering	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:45	Timuka	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 17:45	Toegrama	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Broome	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 18:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:45	Keawkwa	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Basada	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Kobroor	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:30	Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 16:45	Mimako	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Longar	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 14:30	Gomo Gomo	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.