Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (22 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.3 m	119 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	318

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	21 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	21 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	21 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	21 Feb 2024 18:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	106,098	+
	Indonesia	97,053
	Papua New Guinea	9,042
	Australia	02
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	10,234,282	+
	Indonesia	9,031,069
	Papua New Guinea	1,194,693
	Australia	8,519

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	117	Few people			-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	127	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	141	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	107	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	103	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
22	21 Feb 2024 00:00	53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	21 Feb 2024 06:00	69	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
24	21 Feb 2024 12:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	21 Feb 2024 18:00	276	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Derby	Australia	0.3
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:30	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:30	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:30	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:30	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:30	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:15	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:15	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:15	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 21:45	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 21:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:45	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:45	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 23:30	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 19:15	Heits	Indonesia	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 18:45	Streaky Bay	Australia	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 20:00	Eucla Motel	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Badu	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Dauan	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:30	Haslam	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 23:15	Woods Well	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 23:15	Salt Creek	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 23:15	Magrath Flat	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 23:15	Pender	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Rupari	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Tulkineara	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:00	Eyre	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Denial Bay	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Thevenard	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Ceduna	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Laura Bay	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Julia	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Pine Point	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Ardrossan	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Hindmarsh Island	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Goolwa	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Elliot	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Middleton	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Victor Harbour	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Hindmarsh Valley	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Encounter Bay	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Waitpinga	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Salt Lake	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Muston	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	American River	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Clinton	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Wakefield	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Wakefield	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Inkerman	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Parham	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Price	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 18:15	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Prime	Australia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Grassy Flat	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:45	Tandjungbinga	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:45	Sidjuk	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:45	Sungaipadang	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:00	Thundulda	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:15	Kepoh	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:15	Tukak	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:15	Penoetoek	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:15	Gunung	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 23:15	Sagu	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:45	Batubetumpang	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Boigu	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:00	Tandjunglabu	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Pangkalpinang	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:30	Batoebeloebang	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:15	Koba	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 21:15	Perlang	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 22:15	Namang	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Feb 2024 00:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.