Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (16 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	76 km/h	0.2 m	147 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	00	+

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	385,182	+
	Indonesia	334,823
	Papua New Guinea	46,359
	Australia	3,999
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	53,956,046	+
	Indonesia	50,686,733
	Papua New Guinea	3,262,435
	Australia	6,877

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	293	390 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Soeam, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 16 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:30	Alyangula	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Falcon	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Mandurah	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Peelhurst	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Singleton	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Karnup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Dalyellup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Bunbury	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Binningup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Picton	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Eaton	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Burragenup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Australind	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Safety Bay	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Rockingham	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Warnbro	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Fremantle	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	North Fremantle	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	East Fremantle	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Coogee	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Spearwood	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Bicton	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Wattleup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Mullalloo Beach	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	North Beach	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Scarborough	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Mosman Park	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Cottesloe	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Peppermint Grove	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Swanbourne	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Claremont	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:30	Myalup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:45	Broome	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 23:45	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:30	Quinns Rock	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:30	Yanchep	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Vasse	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Broadwater	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Busselton	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Wonnerup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Ludlow	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:30	Two Rocks	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Karumba	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:15	Seabird	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:15	Guilderton	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:15	Lancelin	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Hopetoun	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Jerdacuttup	Australia	0.2
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Tjikawung	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Sumur	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Weipa	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:45	Oakdale	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Warroora	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Menango	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Tandjungkarang	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Telukbetung	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Tarahan	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:45	Minarup	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Aerdjeruk	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Babakancibeber	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 21:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Denison	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Port Denison	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Dongara	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Quobba	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 23:15	Mapoon	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Greenough	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:45	Esperance	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:45	Doombup	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 22:45	Tjiteureup	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:30	Jurien	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:30	Cervantes	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Jow	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:45	Illawong	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:30	Green Head	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:30	Leeman	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:30	Coolimba	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:00	Augusta	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 19:00	Milyeannup	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Labuhan	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Kaduperasi	Indonesia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 23:00	Kolitjaah	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Kekatang	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Parap	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 22:15	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Drummond Cove	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Popes Landing	Australia	0.1
	15 Feb 2024 20:15	Waggrakine	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.