Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (20 Feb 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	103 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	03

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia	1,716,229
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	38,924,343	+
	Indonesia	38,798,896
	Papua New Guinea	122,899
	Australia	2,547

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	117	Few people			-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	19 Feb 2024 06:00	127	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
16	19 Feb 2024 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
17	19 Feb 2024 18:00	141	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
18	20 Feb 2024 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	20 Feb 2024 06:00	107	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
20	20 Feb 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	20 Feb 2024 18:00	270	1.7 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Alyangula, Australia. This height is estimated for 20 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Augusta	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Stirling North	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Bonython	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.3
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Germein	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Telowie	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Davis	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Pirie	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Solomontown	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Badu	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:45	Karumba	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Gove	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:15	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Boigu	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:30	Kowanyama	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:15	Kulinchin	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Dauan	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:15	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:45	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:30	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:30	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:45	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Seisia	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:45	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Sarire	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:45	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:30	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 19:15	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 22:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:30	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Anansai	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 23:15	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Wyndham	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 20:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Weipa	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:15	Weipa South	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Okaba	Indonesia	0.2
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Whyalla	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Broome	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Thangoo	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	21 Feb 2024 00:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:30	Heits	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Welab	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:30	Papisote	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:30	Ludlow	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Binningup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Picton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Burragenup	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Australind	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 19:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Port Broughton	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:00	Dokib	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 18:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 21:45	Wamal	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2024 20:45	Gelib	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.