Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.2 m (17 Feb 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	1.2 m	49 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	567

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	314,001	+
	Indonesia	310,810
	Papua New Guinea	1,074
	Australia	2,116
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	33,770,761	+
	Indonesia	33,200,312
	Papua New Guinea	566,733
	Australia	3,716

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	331	310 thousand		-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.2m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2024 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2024 05:15	Karumba	Australia	1.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.8
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 01:30	Kulinchin	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bing Bong	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 01:45	Weipa	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 01:45	Weipa South	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 01:15	Mapoon	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Badu	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Gove	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 04:45	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Anansai	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dokib	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:15	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dodalim	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Yulbabuti	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kandala Jawal	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Seisia	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 05:00	Cape York	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Boigu	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:30	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Selemit	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Wan	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Konerau	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dauan	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:45	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:30	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:30	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:30	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 05:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 04:45	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Parap	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 03:15	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 05:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 02:30	Salebe	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 02:30	Modan	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 05:00	Toegrama	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.