Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Feb 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	50 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia	1,323,581	+
	Indonesia	1,301,644
	Papua New Guinea	21,367
	Australia	569
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	37,607,918	+
	Indonesia	34,933,008
	Papua New Guinea	2,672,814
	Australia	2,094

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	117	Few people			-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	110	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
13	18 Feb 2024 18:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
14	19 Feb 2024 00:00	209	1.3 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 19 Feb 2024 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Feb 2024 01:30	Derby	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 01:45	Derby	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 05:45	Broome	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 05:45	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	The Palms	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Parap	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Berrimah	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Soeam	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Per	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Amborip	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Jow	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Aloszville	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:45	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:45	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Heits	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:15	Longar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:15	Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:15	Gomo Gomo	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:15	Masian	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Ok Village	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:45	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:30	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:15	Kobadangar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:15	Djamboeai	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:15	Barakan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:15	Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 03:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Pono	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Basada	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:15	Kobroor	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:45	Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 02:30	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Sungsang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:00	Kedjabi	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Batoe Porong	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 06:00	Kebanjar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:45	Jofar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 01:45	Agats	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:30	Losan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 00:30	Keojabi	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Medielang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:15	Muntok	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Cilancang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 04:15	Cirebon	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Brassan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2024 05:30	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.