Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Feb 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.2 m	117 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	339

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	2,966,529	+
	Indonesia	2,941,603
	Papua New Guinea	23,565
	Australia	1,360
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	33,392,391	+
	Indonesia	32,742,659
	Papua New Guinea	643,385
	Australia	6,346

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	232	3 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Running Creek, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2024 06:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2024 06:30	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:45	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:45	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:45	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:45	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:30	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:30	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:30	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:30	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 11:45	Gladstone	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 11:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 11:30	Tamala	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Hamelin Pool	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Hamelin	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	The Palms	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Parap	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 08:30	Berrimah	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Nanga	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Carrarang	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Germein	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Pirie	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Solomontown	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Telowie	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Wyndham	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Useless Loop	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Davis	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Bonython	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Monkey Mia	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:15	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:30	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:30	Port Augusta	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:30	Stirling North	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 07:15	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Denham	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:15	Whyalla	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Cape York	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:15	Broome	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 09:30	Minjilang	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 07:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 10:30	Soengaiamang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 08:15	Carnarvon	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 10:30	Waterbank	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 06:30	Learmonth	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Cowell	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:15	Warroora	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 10:15	Sabui	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 11:30	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.