Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (18 Feb 17:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.3 m	110 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	00	+

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	406,887	+
	Indonesia	403,996
	Papua New Guinea	1,538
	Australia	1,352
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	28,093,910	+
	Indonesia	26,972,946
	Papua New Guinea	1,111,611
	Australia	9,353

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	18 Feb 2024 06:00	117	Few people			-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
12	18 Feb 2024 12:00	280	410 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Port Augusta West, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2024 17:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2024 17:45	Port Augusta West	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 17:45	Port Augusta	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 17:45	Stirling North	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:15	Port Davis	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:15	Port Germein	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:15	Port Pirie	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:15	Solomontown	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:15	Telowie	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Port Bonython	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2024 15:30	Whyalla	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 14:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Gladstone	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Nanga	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Hamelin Pool	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Hamelin	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Useless Loop	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 14:15	Port Broughton	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:30	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Carrarang	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Tamala	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 14:30	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:15	Wyndham	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:00	Monkey Mia	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 14:00	Tickera	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 12:45	Denham	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:45	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:30	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:30	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:30	Cape York	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Parap	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:30	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:00	Wallaroo	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:15	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:45	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:45	Saibai	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:45	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:45	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:45	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 14:30	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 12:30	Cowell	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 18:00	Broome	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 18:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Warburto	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:00	Badu	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Semisir	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Salinau	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Semaras	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 15:30	Sawarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 16:30	Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Hughes	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Port Moonta	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Moonta Bay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 13:15	Moonta	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.