Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.2 m (17 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	1.2 m	102 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	320

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	834,473	+
	Indonesia	809,416
	Papua New Guinea	23,166
	Australia	1,889
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	15,311,542	+
	Indonesia	14,383,572
	Papua New Guinea	923,991
	Australia	3,979

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	323	830 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.2m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Karumba	Australia	1.2
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Numbulwar	Australia	0.8
	17 Feb 2024 11:15	Bing Bong	Australia	0.8
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.7
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Weipa	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.6
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Gove	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Yirrkala	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.5
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Badu	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 09:30	Kondomiraf	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Barattar	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Seisia	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Tamerau	Indonesia	0.4
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Kotad	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Dumande	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Cape York	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Boigu	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:45	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:30	Tamarike	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:15	Sarire	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Anansai	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Wendu	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Matara	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Urum	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:30	Merauke	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:00	Daub	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:15	Okaba	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:45	Papisote	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Dauan	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Kandala Jawal	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Wamal	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Gelib	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Dokib	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Dodalim	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Yulbabuti	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Broome	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Thangoo	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Saibai	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 11:45	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Komoran	Indonesia	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 10:30	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:30	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Selemit	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Wan	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Konerau	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 09:00	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:45	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:00	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Tor	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Kladar	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:15	Sabon	Indonesia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:00	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 06:30	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:15	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:30	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:15	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:15	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 07:00	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Waterbank	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Parap	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Derby	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 09:15	Minjilang	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 08:15	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2024 09:30	Kollan I	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.