Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LINCOLN-24 in Australia from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 24 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LINCOLN-24

in Australia

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LINCOLN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.2 m	65 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	1.2 m	427 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	177

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	9,140,031	+
	Indonesia	9,131,659
	Papua New Guinea	6,604
	Australia	1,767
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia	33,901,240	+
	Indonesia	31,472,378
	Papua New Guinea	2,418,617
	Australia	10,243

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	16 Feb 2024 06:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	16 Feb 2024 12:00	128	100 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
5	16 Feb 2024 18:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Papua New Guinea, Australia
6	17 Feb 2024 00:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2024 06:00	102	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
8	17 Feb 2024 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
9	17 Feb 2024 18:00	126	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
10	18 Feb 2024 00:00	408	9.1 million			-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Running Creek, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Running Creek	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Asaramio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Tapapi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Amagoa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Sisiama No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Tugara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Bamio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Orapoi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Buniki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Bina No 1	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Airua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Bunigi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Aibinio	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Gesco	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Dameramuda	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Umuda I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Segero	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Dibiri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Oropai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Tirere	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Maipani	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Misiki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Giwaretore	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Gibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Ibou	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Morigio I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:30	Mapoi'a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Dauan	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Koravaki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:45	Mariki	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:45	Ara'ava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:45	Kinipo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:00	Ekeirau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Boigu	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Bugi	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 05:15	Pai-a	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 05:15	Namaituri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 05:00	Goari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 05:00	Ubua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 05:00	Dopima	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:30	Auti	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:30	Daware	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:30	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:30	Iasa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:45	Moinamu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:45	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:30	Ipisia	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Apiope	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Ravi-kevau	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Marea	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Iuku	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Herekera	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Daru	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Dorogari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Katatai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Parama	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:15	Agobara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:15	Samari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:15	Oromosapuo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Tais	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 03:15	Kapai	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:45	Akoma	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:00	Karumba	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Boze	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Ume	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Mirua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Gove	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 04:45	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Kadawa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:45	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:45	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Mari	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:30	Minjilang	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Kuria	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Badu	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 02:15	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Cape York	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Cowel Creek	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Seisia	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Bamaga	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 00:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 04:45	Salebe	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 04:45	Modan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 06:00	Learmonth	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2024 03:30	Warroora	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.