Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (15 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 97 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.5 m 707 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Feb 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Feb 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Feb 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Feb 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Feb 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 09 Feb 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Feb 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Feb 2020 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 10 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 10 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 10 Feb 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 10 Feb 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 11 Feb 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 11 Feb 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 11 Feb 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 11 Feb 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 12 Feb 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 12 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 12 Feb 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 12 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 13 Feb 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 13 Feb 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 13 Feb 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 13 Feb 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 14 Feb 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 39 14 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 40 14 Feb 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 41 14 Feb 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 42 15 Feb 2020 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar39,086 
250-500 mmMadagascar287,239 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,720,763 
50-100 mmSeychelles, Madagascar9,395,248
+
Seychelles166 
Madagascar9,395,082 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 276 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 274 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Feb 2020 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Feb 2020 00:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Feb 2020 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Feb 2020 12:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Feb 2020 18:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Feb 2020 00:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Feb 2020 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Feb 2020 12:00 46 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Feb 2020 18:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 09 Feb 2020 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Feb 2020 06:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Feb 2020 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 10 Feb 2020 00:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 10 Feb 2020 06:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 10 Feb 2020 12:00 26 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 10 Feb 2020 18:00 52 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 11 Feb 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 11 Feb 2020 06:00 41 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 11 Feb 2020 12:00 30 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 11 Feb 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 12 Feb 2020 00:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 12 Feb 2020 06:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 12 Feb 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 12 Feb 2020 18:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 13 Feb 2020 00:00 93 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 35 13 Feb 2020 06:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 13 Feb 2020 12:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 13 Feb 2020 18:00 100 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 38 14 Feb 2020 00:00 107 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 39 14 Feb 2020 06:00 113 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 40 14 Feb 2020 12:00 110 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 41 14 Feb 2020 18:00 115 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 42 15 Feb 2020 00:00 571 2 million
- - Seychelles, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 15 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 12:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
17 Feb 2020 07:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 00:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 11:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 11:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 10:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 10:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 10:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 10:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 00:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 20:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 06:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 06:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 06:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 06:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 19:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 19:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 19:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Antotoro Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampohana Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 20:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 20:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:45 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:30 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:30 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:30 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 00:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 23:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 20:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 20:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:15 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 20:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 20:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 09:30 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 18:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:30 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:15 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 07:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 20:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:15 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:15 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 22:15 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:45 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:45 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:45 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:45 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2020 18:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 18:45 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 18:45 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 18:45 Mite Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:00 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:00 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 21:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 20:00 Ambalihabe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 19:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Lunga Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Ali Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 19:15 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1