Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

06 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (06 Feb 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.5 m	106 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	170,327

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	217	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.5
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.5
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 17:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:15	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Ambazoamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Ambazoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Ankazomanitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Beaniky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Esanta	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 14:00	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Ankilihago	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Elanja	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:30	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:45	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 14:45	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 15:45	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:15	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:15	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Ampasimpolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 13:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 16:30	Antanandava	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.