Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

09 Feb 2020 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (09 Feb 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.2 m	66 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	124,452	+
	Mozambique	114,444
	Madagascar	10,008

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	236	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ambaliha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2020 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 08:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 08:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 06:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 10:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 09:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.