Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

05 Feb 2020 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Feb 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	90 km/h	0.2 m	197 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	13,867	+
	Seychelles	238
	Madagascar	13,629

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	461	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andopitaly, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2020 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:30	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:30	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:30	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 00:30	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 02:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 02:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 02:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 02:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 02:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:15	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 05:15	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 04:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 03:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 03:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 03:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 03:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.