Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

07 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (07 Feb 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.3 m	59 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique	114,184	+
	Madagascar	67,995
	Mozambique	46,189

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Antohgo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 07 Feb 2020 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 21:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 21:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 21:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 21:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 20:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 23:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:45	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 23:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 23:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:30	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:30	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:15	Ampary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 23:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 23:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 19:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 20:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 22:15	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 21:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.