Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

07 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (07 Feb 14:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	31 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	108,338	+
	Mozambique	16,007
	Madagascar	92,331

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Maroantsetra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 07 Feb 2020 14:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Feb 2020 14:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 14:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 14:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 14:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 14:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:45	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 16:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 17:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 17:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 12:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 12:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 13:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:15	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 12:45	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 17:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 14:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 16:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.