Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

08 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Feb 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	63 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	3,345

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	201	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 23:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 19:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:15	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:30	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:30	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:30	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:15	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:30	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:30	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:45	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:45	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:45	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 22:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:15	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 23:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:45	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:30	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 21:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 20:15	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.