Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

06 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (06 Feb 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	0.4 m	81 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	132,616

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	311	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 08:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 06:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 06:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 07:45	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 07:45	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 07:45	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 07:45	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 09:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 07:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 07:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 12:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 10:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 11:00	Lucete	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.