Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

09 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (09 Feb 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.3 m	57 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	600,234	+
	Mozambique	589,931
	Madagascar	10,303

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	197	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2020 16:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 12:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 12:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 12:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:30	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:30	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:30	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:30	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:45	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 13:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 14:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 17:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 16:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 15:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.