Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

07 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (07 Feb 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	49 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	105,787

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 07 Feb 2020 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 09:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 11:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:15	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:15	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:15	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:15	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 10:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 10:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 09:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 08:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:45	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:45	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 11:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.