Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

07 Feb 2020 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (07 Feb 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	77 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	45
50-100 mm	Madagascar	87,511

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	166	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Analanampotsy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 07 Feb 2020 01:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	07 Feb 2020 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 03:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 03:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 03:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 05:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 05:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 05:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 03:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Feb 2020 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 01:00	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:45	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 06:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 03:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 02:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 00:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Feb 2020 05:30	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.