Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

13 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (13 Feb 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	59 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	13 Feb 2020 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	71,097
100-250 mm	Madagascar	777,739
50-100 mm	Madagascar	4,600,942

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	93	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
35	13 Feb 2020 06:00	551	850 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 13 Feb 2020 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:30	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 07:45	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:45	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:45	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:15	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 12:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 12:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 12:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 09:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 12:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 11:30	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 08:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.