Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

06 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (06 Feb 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	58 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	2,890
50-100 mm	Madagascar	126,427

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	156	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:15	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 20:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 19:45	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 18:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2020 22:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.