Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

14 Feb 2020 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (14 Feb 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	107 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	13 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	13 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	13 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	14 Feb 2020 00:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	166,236
100-250 mm	Madagascar	1,913,906
50-100 mm	Madagascar	7,186,873

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	93	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
35	13 Feb 2020 06:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	13 Feb 2020 12:00	186	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	13 Feb 2020 18:00	100	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
38	14 Feb 2020 00:00	472	2.1 million				-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ambaliha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 10:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 05:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 05:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 05:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 08:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 12:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 01:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 22:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 22:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 09:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.2
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 15:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 04:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Feb 2020 08:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 08:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 12:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 12:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 03:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 10:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 21:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 00:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 17:45	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 00:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 21:45	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 21:45	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 21:45	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 21:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 20:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:15	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 08:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 21:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 17:15	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 17:15	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 17:15	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 21:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:45	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:45	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 09:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 08:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 22:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 20:00	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 08:15	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Feb 2020 09:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 11:45	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 18:45	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 18:45	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 18:45	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 18:45	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Feb 2020 08:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Feb 2020 19:15	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.