Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

13 Feb 2020 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (13 Feb 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	93 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	260,677
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar	6,328,604	+
	Comoros	43,505
	Madagascar	6,285,099

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	13 Feb 2020 00:00	530	260 thousand			-	-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 13 Feb 2020 00:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 04:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 04:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 03:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 04:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 02:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 05:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 06:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.