Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

05 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (05 Feb 19:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	0.5 m	276 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	153,861

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	577	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2020 19:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.5
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:45	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:45	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:15	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:30	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:15	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 22:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:45	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:45	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:30	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Madimba	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 23:00	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:45	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:30	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:15	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:15	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 21:15	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:45	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Pangome	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Arimba	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 22:00	Tavari	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 20:15	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 19:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.