Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

12 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (12 Feb 18:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	62 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	107,450
50-100 mm	Madagascar	4,890,961

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	12 Feb 2020 12:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	12 Feb 2020 18:00	405	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 12 Feb 2020 18:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 20:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Feb 2020 00:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:15	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:15	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:15	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:15	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 23:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 22:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 21:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:30	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 18:30	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 20:00	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Madimba	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 19:00	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.