Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

08 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Feb 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.3 m	46 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	14,093

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	244	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 15:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 14:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 15:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 15:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 17:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 17:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 17:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 17:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 17:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 14:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 17:45	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 17:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 17:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 17:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 17:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 14:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 14:15	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 18:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.