Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

11 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (11 Feb 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	41 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar	1,038,355	+
	Tanzania	1,908
	Mozambique	656
	Comoros	749,998
	Mayotte	47,050
	Madagascar	238,743

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	250	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Manampatra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Feb 2020 10:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 07:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 10:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 12:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 12:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 11:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:15	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 07:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 10:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:00	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 08:30	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 09:45	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.