Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-02-15 18:23

WTIO31 FMEE 151646 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-02-15 18:23

WTIO30 FMEE 151646 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND

>

2020-02-15 18:21

WTIO31 FMEE 151646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE FRANCISCO CONTINUE DE S'ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES, EN
DIRECTION DES HAUTS PLATEAUX. LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT SUR
TERRE MAIS RESTE UNE MENACE DE FORTE PLUIE POUR CERTAINES PARTIES DE
LA REGION EST ET CENTRALE DE MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

UNE ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE IRREGULIERE VA SE MAINTENIR SUR LA
PARTIE ORIENTALE DE MADAGASCAR, CELLE-CI A GAGNE L'INTERIEUR DES
TERRES EN COURS DE JOURNEE ET DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR EN JOURNA E DE
DEMAIN. DES CUMULS PLUVIEUX CONSEQUENTS SONT A ATTENDRE, EN
PARTICULIER AU VOISINAGE DU 20EME PARALLELE SUD, MAIS EGALEMENT PLUS
AU SUD SUR LA PARTIE COTIERE (JUSQU'A FARAFANGANA), PLUS AU NORD DANS
LA REGION DE TAMATAVE AINSI QUE SUR LA CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE INTERIEURE.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, DES CUMULS ADDITIONELS DE L'ORDRE DE
100 A 150 MM EN 24H SONT PROBABLES SUR CES REGIONS AVEC DES VALEURS
LOCALEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTES AU NIVEAU DE LA CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE.

EN FIN DE WEEK-END, UN MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL POURRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE TRES AFFAIBLI.
AUCUNE REINTENSIFICATION N'EST TOUTEFOIS ENVISAGEE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT
ETANT DEFAVORABLE, AVEC NOTAMMENT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST.

CECI EST DE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME.=

>

2020-02-15 18:21

WTIO30 FMEE 151646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/8/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CENTRE OF FRANCISCO GOES ON TRACKING OVERLAND TOWARD THE
HIGHLANDS. FRANCISCO IS WEAKENING AND FILL RAPIDLY BUT WILL REMAIN A
FLOOD THREAT FOR SOME PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MADAGASCAR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR, IT HAS  SPREADED MORE INLAND TODAY. IT MAY MAINTAIN AN
IMPORTANT ACTIVITY TOMORROW. QUITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED, IN PARTICULAR NEAR LATITUDE 20 DEGREES SOUTH BUT ALSO
LOCALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST (DOWN TO FARAFANGANA AREA),
NORTHWARDS UP TO TAMATAVE AND ALSO IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGE TO THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LIKELY REACHING 100 TO 150 MM IN 24H,
LOCALLY MORE PARTICULARLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK-END THE RESIDUAL WEAKENED LOW CIRCULATION
COULD COME BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION (WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN PARTICULAR).

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2020-02-15 13:09

WTIO31 FMEE 151252 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-02-15 13:09

WTIO30 FMEE 151252 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND

>

2020-02-15 13:06

WTIO31 FMEE 151252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE FRANCISCO A ATTERRIT SUR LA COTE EST MALGACHE AU
VOISINAGE DE LA LOCALITE DE MAHANORO PEU DE TEMPS APRES LE PRECEDENT
BULLETIN. LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT SUR TERRE MAIS RESTE UNE
MENACE DE FORTE PLUIE POUR CERTAINES PARTIES DE LA REGION EST ET
CENTRALE DE MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

UNE ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE IRREGULIERE VA SE MAINTENIR SUR LA
PARTIE ORIENTALE DE MADAGASCAR GAGNANT A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES EN
FIN DE JOURNEE. DES CUMULS PLUVIEUX CONSEQUENTS SONT A ATTENDRE, EN
PARTICULIER AU VOISINAGE DU 20EME PARALLELE SUD, MAIS EGALEMENT PLUS
AU SUD SUR LA PARTIE COTIERE (JUSQU'A FARAFANGANA), PLUS AU NORD DANS
LA REGION DE TAMATAVE AINSI QUE SUR LA CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE INTERIEURE.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, DES CUMULS ADDITIONELS DE L'ORDRE DE
100 A 150 MM EN 24H SONT PROBABLES SUR CES REGIONS AVEC DES VALEURS
LOCALEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTES AU NIVEAU DE LA CHAINE MONTAGNEUSE.

EN FIN DE WEEK-END, UN MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL POURRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE TRES AFFAIBLI.
AUCUNE REINTENSIFICATION N'EST TOUTEFOIS ENVISAGEE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT
ETANT DEFAVORABLE, AVEC NOTAMMENT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST.=

>

2020-02-15 13:06

WTIO30 FMEE 151252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20192020
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CENTRE OF THE MIDGET STORM MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF MADAGASCAR NEAR THE CITY OF MAHANORO SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. FRANCISCO IS WEAKENING AND FILL RAPIDLY BUT WILL REMAIN A
FLOOD THREAT FOR SOME PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MADAGASCAR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR SPREADING MORE INLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. QUITE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, IN PARTICULAR NEAR
LATITUDE 20 DEGREES SOUTH BUT ALSO LOCALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
(DOWN TO FARAFANGANA AREA), NORTHWARDS UP TO TAMATAVE AND ALSO IN THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LIKELY
REACHING 100 TO 150 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY MORE PARTICULARLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK-END THE RESIDUAL WEAKENED LOW CIRCULATION
COULD COME BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION (WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN PARTICULAR).=

>

2020-02-15 12:33

WTIO24 FMEE 151228
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 19S AND 21S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
19.7 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
IN 6 HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS OVER WATERS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-02-15 07:17

WTIO31 FMEE 150629 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+. CI=2.5+

>

2020-02-15 07:17

WTIO30 FMEE 150629 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ . CI=2.5+

>

2020-02-15 07:15

WTIO31 FMEE 150629
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+; CI=2.5+

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI A ETE TRES FLUCTUANTE DEPUIS HIER A REPRIS
EN COURS DE NUIT AVEC LE CYCLE DIURNE. LES ORBITES MICRO-ONDES
ACQUISES EN FIN DE NUIT (GPM EN PARTICULIER) MONTRENT UN VORTEX DE
TRES PETITE TAILLE MAIS A LA VORTICITE EXTREMEMENT AFFIRMEE, AVEC
PRESENCE D'UN SIMILI OEIL DE BASSES COUCHES. AU VU DE CETTE STRUCTURE
MICRO-ONDE ET MALGRE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PEU IMPRESSIONNANTE
SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, IL EST PLUS QUE PROBABLE QUE DES VENTS DE
LA FORCE DU COUP DE VENT SONT PRESENTS AU VOISINAGE DU RAYON DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX (ATTEIGNANT VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENCORE TEMPORAIREMENT 40
KT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST A EST DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE).

LE CENTRE DE FRANCISCO EST CEPENDANT SUR LE POINT D'ATTERRIR SUR LA
COTE EST MALGACHE AU VOISINAGE DE LA LOCALITE DE MAHANORO ET LE
SYSTEME VA DONC RAPIDEMENT SE COMBLER ET LES VENTS S'AFFAIBLIR.

UNE ACTIVITA  PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE IRREGULIERE VA SE MAINTENIR SUR LA
PARTIE ORIENTALE DE MADAGASCAR GAGNANT A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES EN
FIN DE JOURNEE. DES CUMULS PLUVIEUX CONSEQUENTS SONT A ATTENDRE, EN
PARTICULIER AU VOISINAGE DU 20EME PARALLELE SUD, MAIS EGALEMENT PLUS
AU SUD SUR LA PARTIE COTIERE (JUSQU'A FARAFANGANA) ET LA CHAINE
MONTAGNEUSE INTERIEURE,  ATTEIGNANT 100 A 150MM EN 24H, LOCALEMENT
DAVANTAGE AU VOISINAGE DE 20 DEGRES SUD.

EN FIN DE WEEK-END, UN MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL POURRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE TRES AFFAIBLI.
AUCUNE REINTENSIFICATION N'EST TOUTEFOIS ENVISAGEE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT
ETANT DEFAVORABLE, AVEC NOTAMMENT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST.=

>

2020-02-15 07:15

WTIO30 FMEE 150629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ ; CI=2.5+

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY FLUCTUATING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS
BURST OVERNIGHT BOOSTED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE MICROWAVE DATA
ACQUIRED AT THE END OF THE NIGHT (GPM SWATH IN PARTICULAR) REVEALED
THE PRESENCE OF A TIGHT BUT PROMINENT AND VERY-WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX SURROUNDING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. CONSIDERING THE MICROWAVE
STRUCTURE AND DESPITE A CLOUD PATTERN WHICH LOOKS RATHER INNOCUOUS ON
THE CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY, IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (LIKELY
STILL TEMPORARILY REACHING 40KT IN THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION).

THE CENTRE OF THE MIDGET STORM IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF MADAGASCAR NEAR THE CITY OF MAHANORO. FRANCISCO
WILL THEREAFTER WEAKEN AND FILL RAPIDLY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR SPREADING MORE INLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. QUITE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, IN PARTICULAR NEAR
LATITUDE 20 DEGREES SOUTH BUT ALSO LOCALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
(DOWN TO FARAFANGANA AREA) AND IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGE TO THE WEST MAY
LIKELY REACHING 100 TO 150 MM IN 24H, LOCALLY MORE NEAR 20 DEGREES
SOUTH.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK-END THE RESIDUAL WEAKENED LOW CIRCULATION
COULD COME BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR A
RE-INTENSIFICATION (WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN PARTICULAR).=

>

2020-02-15 06:31

WTIO24 FMEE 150627 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE (MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT) AND VERY LOCALLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 45.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE STORM'S CENTRE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF
MAHANORO.=

>

2020-02-15 06:24

WTIO24 FMEE 150617
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 48.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE (MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT) AND VERY LOCALLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 45.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE STORM'S CENTRE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF
MAHANORO.=

>

2020-02-13 12:54

WTIO31 FMEE 131248 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 170 NO: 170


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 14/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

>

2020-02-13 12:54

WTIO30 FMEE 131248 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 170


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/02/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/15 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

>

2020-02-13 12:50

WTIO31 FMEE 131248
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 170 NO: 170


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 14/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
36H: 15/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 15/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-

UNE FORTE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE S'EST PRODUITE EN COURS DE NUIT DERNIERE
SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA CIRCULATION. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST ENSUITE
BIEN MAINTENUE EN JOURNEE SUR LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST EN PROFITANT DE
LA BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE POLAIRE AINSI QUE D'UNE
AUGMENTATION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE. LES PASSES ASCAT-A ET
ASCAT-C DE LA MATINEE MONTRENT UNE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE BIEN DA
FINIE AVEC DES VENTS ATTEIGNANTS 30KT SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

AVEC LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPO BASCULE AU
NORD-EST. AINSI, FRANCISCO DEVRAIT LONGER LA COTE MALGACHE VERS LE
SUD DEMAIN VENDREDI AVANT D'ATTERRIR EN JOURNEE OU SOIREE DE SAMEDI.
LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL QUI A PERMIS LE REGAIN
D'ORGANISATION RESTE D'ACTUALITE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. L'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE RESTE CEPENDANT PRESENT A L'EST. LA
PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES DEVRAIT GENER LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES. MALGRE CELA, FRANCISCO DEVRAIT PEU OU PROU MAINTENIR SON
INTENSITE ACTUELLE JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE.

AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT PUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE DE FRANCISCO, LES REGIONS
COTIERES SITUEES DE TAMATAVE A FARAFANGANA VONT ETRE AFFECTEES PAR
UNE ACTIVITA  PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE INTENSE ET DURABLE. LES CUMULS PREVUS
SUR LES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS ATTEIGNENT 250MM, ET DEPASSENT 300MM
LOCALEMENT. LES REGIONS INTERIEURES, ET NOTAMMENT TANANARIVE,
DEVRAIENT ETRE CONCERNEES DANS UNE MOINDRE MESURE AVEC DES CUMULS PRA
VUS VERS 100MM SUR L'A PISODE.

EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, CERTAINS MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE PROPOSE UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A
UN STADE TRES AFFAIBLI. L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST CEPENDANT TRES
DEFAVORABLE A UNE REINTENSIFICATION AVEC NOTAMMENT UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST.

SI INTENSIFICATION, UN BULLETIN SERA EMIS DEMAIN AVANT ATTERRISSAGE.=

>

2020-02-13 12:50

WTIO30 FMEE 131248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 170


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/02/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/15 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST TRIGGERED OVERNIGHT ON THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED QUITE WELL OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BENEFITING FROM A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS A BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE ASCAT-A AND
ASCAT-C SWATHS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS
REACHING 30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CELL, THE LOW-MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS BACKING NORTHEASTERLY. THUS, FRANCISCO SHOULD
TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MADAGASCAN COASTLINE TOMORROW FRIDAY,
BEFORE LANDING SATURDAY. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW OVER THE WEEK-END. MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR IS STILL LOCATED IN THE EAST. THE VICINITY OF THE MADAGASCAN
COASTLINE SHOULD DISTURB THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION. HOWEVER,
FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO GLOBALLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
UNTIL ITS LANDFALL.

TONIGHT, WITH FRANCISCO COMING CLOSER BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR,
THE COASTAL REGIONS LOCATED FROM TAMATAVE TO FARAFANGANA SHOULD BE
AFFECTED BY A STRONG AND DURABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS COULD REACH 250MM AND
EXCEED 300MM LOCALLY. TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS
INLAND, INCLUDING TANANARIVE, SHOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED WITH
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL REACHING 100MM OVER THE EPISODE.

IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SUGGEST THAT A VERY WEAKENED RESIDUAL CIRCULATION COULD
COME BACK OVER SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH AN
ESPECIALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

IF INTENSIFICATION, A BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW BEFORE
LANDING.=

>

2020-02-13 12:19

WTIO22 FMEE 131215 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FROM 200 NM UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT REACHING VERY LOCALLY GALE FORCE 35 KT
AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
A BULLETIN COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW BEFORE THE LANDING IF THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES FURTHER. CORRECTIVE ON MOVEMENT PARAMETERS.=

>

2020-02-13 12:13

WTIO22 FMEE 131209
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FROM 200 NM UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/14 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
A BULLETIN COULD BE ISSUED TOMORROW BEOFRE THE LANDING IF THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES FURTHER.=

>

2020-02-07 12:12

WTIO20 FMEE 071209 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 8 (FRANCISCO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 200 NM UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-02-07 12:04

WTIO31 FMEE 071146 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 10/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 10/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-02-07 12:04

WTIO30 FMEE 071146 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20192020
1.A FILLING UP 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/10 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/10 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT

>

2020-02-07 12:04

WTIO20 FMEE 071152
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 8 (FRANCISCO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 200 NM UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-07 12:01

WTIO31 FMEE 071146
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/8/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 10/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 10/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 H, LA CONVECTION A TOTALEMENT DESERTE LA
CIRCULATION PRINCIPALE. ELLE N'EST PLUS PRESENTE QUE DANS LE SILLAGE
DU SYSTEME, LOIN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. LE VORTEX DE NUAGES DE
BASSES COUCHES RESTE ENCORE BIEN SYMMETRIQUE.

FRANCISCO A FINI PAR BUTER DANS LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES AU
SUD ET SE DEPLACE DESORMAIS VERS L'OUEST. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A DERIVER L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PRIS DANS LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA CELLULE DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. UNE REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-OUEST EST
ENVISAGEE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES MODELES.

L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EMPECHE DESORMAIS LA CONVECTION DE
SE DECLENCHER SUR LE COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN
SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS VONT DEVENIR ENCORE PLUS DEFAVORABLES AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. LE SYSTEME VA DONC
EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DU GRAND FRAIS PRESENT
UNIQUEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON ETAT TRES AFFAIBLI, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION SUR CE
SYSTEME, SAUF REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-02-07 12:01

WTIO30 FMEE 071146
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20192020
1.A FILLING UP 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 69.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/10 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/10 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6H, CONVECTION TOTALLY DISAPPEARED OVER THE MAIN
CIRCULATION. IT IS ONLY LOCATED WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, FAR
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS VORTEX REMAINS
WELL DEFINED.

FRANCISCO FINALLY BUMPED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT IN
THE SOUTH AND IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, IT SHOULD
KEEP ON DRIFTING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. A NORTHWESTERLY
TURN IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH A LARGE
SPREAD OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CURRENTLY PREVENTS ANY CONVECTION OVER THE
CIRCULATION CORE. FROM TOMORROW SATURDAY, CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN MORE
UNFAVORABLE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BECOME A RESIDUAL LOW WITH NEAR
GALE FROCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT FAR TO THE SOUTH BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

ON THIS TRACK, FRANCISCO COMES CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES BUT BECAUSE
OF ITS VERY WEAKENED STATE, IT DOES NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION CONCERNING THIS
SYSTEM, EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.=

>

2020-02-07 06:14

WTIO31 FMEE 070609 RRA
...............CORRECTIF..............
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20192020
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
36H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,

>

2020-02-07 06:14

WTIO30 FMEE 070609 RRA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2020/02/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT

>

2020-02-07 06:11

WTIO31 FMEE 070609 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20192020
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
36H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION SEMBLE MIEUX DEFINIE APRES AVOIR BENEFICIE D'UNE
REPRISE TEMPORAIRE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE EN FIN DE
NUIT. CEPENDANT LES VENTS FORTS ET L'ACTIVITA  CONVECTIVE RESTENT
CONCENTRES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO
RESTANT TRES PRESENT SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA PASSE
ASCAT DU MATIN MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE GRAND FRAIS DANS LE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION, ATTEIGNANT TRES LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT.

FRANCISCO POURSUIT SON RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET DEVRAIT PAR
LA SUITE ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PRIS DANS LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA CELLULE DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

AUJOURD'HUI, UNE BAISSE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE REPRISE TEMPORAIRE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE, AVANT
QUE LA CONTRAINTE NE SE RENFORCE DE NOUVEAU CE SOIR. CEPENDANT L'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT ENCORE SERIEUSEMENT PERTURBER CES
EVENTUELLES POUSSES CONVECTIVES. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS
VONT DEVENIR TRA S DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME VA
DONC EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DU GRAND FRAIS PRESENT
UNIQUEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.
OU=

>

2020-02-07 06:11

WTIO30 FMEE 070609 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2020/02/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE BETTER DEFINED AFTER BENEFITING FROM THE
TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE BURST THAT OCCURRED QUITE CLOSE TO THE CENTER
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION REMAIN
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
OCCUPYING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS MORNING ASCAT
SWATH SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, REACHING GALE
FORCE ONLY VERY LOCALLY.

FRANCISCO'S TRACK CONTINUES TO BEND SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.

TODAY, A RELATIVE WEAKENING IN VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW RESUMPTION OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER, BEFORE THE CONSTRAINT STRENGTHENS
AGAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRY AIR SHOULD SERIOUSLY DISTURB THOSE
EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS. FROM SATURDAY, THE CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR IN MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BECOME A
RESIDUAL LOW WITH NEAR GALE FROCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT FAR TO THE SOUTH
BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

ON THIS TRACK, FRANCISCO COMES CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES BUT BECAUSE
OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT.=

>

2020-02-07 06:09

WTIO31 FMEE 070605 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20192020
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
36H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,

>

2020-02-07 06:09

WTIO30 FMEE 070605 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2020/02/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT

>

2020-02-07 06:07

WTIO20 FMEE 070603
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (FRANCISCO) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE 35 KT AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 315 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-07 06:06

WTIO31 FMEE 070605
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/8/20192020
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SO: 190 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE
36H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 12/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION SEMBLE MIEUX DEFINIE APRES AVOIR BENEFICIE D'UNE
REPRISE TEMPORAIRE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE EN FIN DE
NUIT. CEPENDANT LES VENTS FORTS ET L'ACTIVITA  CONVECTIVE RESTENT
CONCENTRES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO
RESTANT TRES PRESENT SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA PASSE
ASCAT DU MATIN MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE GRAND FRAIS DANS LE GRADIENT DE
PRESSION, ATTEIGNANT TRES LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT.

FRANCISCO POURSUIT SON RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET DEVRAIT PAR LA
SUITE ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA CELLULE DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

AUJOURD'HUI, UNE BAISSE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE REPRISE TEMPORAIRE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE, AVANT
QUE LA CONTRAINTE NE SE RENFORCE DE NOUVEAU CE SOIR. CEPENDANT L'AIR
SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT ENCORE SERIEUSEMENT PERTURBER CES
EVENTUELLES POUSSES CONVECTIVES. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS
VONT DEVENIR TRA S DEFAVORABLES AVEC UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME VA
DONC EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DU GRAND FRAIS PRESENT
UNIQUEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.=

>

2020-02-07 06:06

WTIO30 FMEE 070605
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 580 SW: 190 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/11 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2020/02/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE BETTER DEFINED AFTER BENEFITING FROM THE
TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE BURST THAT OCCURRED QUITE CLOSE TO THE CENTER
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION REMAIN
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
OCCUPYING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS MORNING ASCAT
SWATH SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, REACHING GALE
FORCE ONLY VERY LOCALLY.

FRANCISCO'S TRACK CONTINUES TO BEND SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TRACK EASTSOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.

TODAY, A RELATIVE WEAKENING IN VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW RESUMPTION OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER, BEFORE THE CONSTRAINT STRENGTHENS
AGAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DRY AIR SHOULD SERIOUSLY DISTURB THOSE
EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS. FROM SATURDAY, THE CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR IN MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE BECOME A
RESIDUAL LOW WITH NEAR GALE FROCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT FAR TO THE SOUTH
BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

ON THIS TRACK, FRANCISCO COMES CLOSER TO THE MASCARENES BUT BECAUSE
OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT.=

>

2020-02-07 00:04

WTIO31 FMEE 070002 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 71.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 10/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-02-07 00:04

WTIO30 FMEE 070002 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/10 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT

>

2020-02-07 00:04

WTIO20 FMEE 070002
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/02/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
20.5 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-07 00:03

WTIO31 FMEE 070002
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 71.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 10/02/2020 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION RESTE LARGE AVEC UN CENTRE MAL DEFINI.  SOUS L'EFFET
DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
EST REJETEE LOIN DANS LE QUADRANT EST BIEN QUE LA CELLULE CONVECTIVE
QUI S'EST DEVELOPPEE HIER SOIR DANS LE QUADRANT SUD S'EST MAINTENUE.

FRANCISCO POURSUIT SON RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET DEVRAIT PAR LA
SUITE ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA CELLULE DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

AUJOURD'HUI, UNE BAISSE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT PERMETTRE
UNE REPRISE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE AVANT QUE CELUI-CI
SE RENFORCE DE NOUVEAU CE SOIR. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS
VONT DEVENIR TRA S DEFAVORABLE AVEC UN FORT CISAILLEMENT ET LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME VA DONC EVOLUER
EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS FAIBLISSANT
GRADUELLEMENT UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.=

>

2020-02-07 00:03

WTIO30 FMEE 070002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 71.3 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/10 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WIDE WITH A ILL DEFINED CENTER. UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE NORTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
REJECTED FAR AWAY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT, BUT THE CONVECTIVE CELL
THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT HAS REMAINED.

FRANCISCO CONTINUES BENDING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD THEREFORE ORIENTATE
ITS TRACK EASTSOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.

TODAY, A RELATIVE WEAKENING IN VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW RESUMPTION OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER BEFORE ITS STRENGTHENING THIS
EVENING. FROM SATURDAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE
WITH STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE EVOLVE IN RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION WITH STRONG WINDS WEAKENING GRADUALLY ONLY PRESENT FAR TO
THE SOUTH BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

BY FOLLOWING THIS TRACK FORECAST, FRANCISCO IS CLOSE TO THE
MASCAREIGNES BUT BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT PRESENT ANY
NOTABLE RISK.=

>

2020-02-06 18:09

WTIO31 FMEE 061805 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 71.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-02-06 18:09

WTIO30 FMEE 061805 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 71.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT

>

2020-02-06 18:08

WTIO20 FMEE 061804
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 71.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-06 18:06

WTIO31 FMEE 061805
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 71.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA PASSE SSMIS 37 GHZ DE 1400Z MONTRE TOUJOURS UNE CIRCULATION TRES
LARGE AVEC UN CENTRE MAL DA FINI. SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST REJETEE
LOIN DANS LE QUADRANT EST BIEN QUE QUELQUES CELLULES CONVECTIVES TRA
S FLUCTUANTES ARRIVENT A  SE DA VELOPPER DANS LE QUADRANT SUD DEPUIS
12Z.

FRANCISCO POURSUIT SON RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST ET DEVRAIT PAR LA
SUITE ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PRIS DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA CELLULE DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN MATIN, UNE BAISSE RELATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT
POURRAIT PERMETTRE UNE REPRISE DE LA CONVECTION PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE
AVANT QUE CELUI-CI SE RENFORCE DE NOUVEAU DEMAIN SOIR. A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, LES CONDITIONS VONT DEVENIR TRA S DEFAVORABLE AVEC UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT ET LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE
SYSTEME VA DONC EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS
FAIBLISSANT GRADUELLEMENT UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.=

>

2020-02-06 18:06

WTIO30 FMEE 061805
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 71.9 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE 1400Z SSMIS 37 GHZ SWATH ALWAYS SHOWS VERY WIDE CIRCULATION WITH
AN ILL DEFINED CENTER. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION IS REJECTED FAR AWAY IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT ALTHOUGH SOME VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT SINCE 12Z.

FRANCISCO CONTINUES BENDING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD THEREFORE ORIENTATE
ITS TRACK EASTSOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, A RELATIVE WEAKENING IN VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
ALLOW RESUMPTION OF CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER BEFORE ITS
STRENGTHENING TOMORROW EVENING. FROM SATURDAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE
EVOLVE IN RESIDUAL DEPRESSION WITH STRONG WINDS WEAKENING GRADUALLY
ONLY PRESENT FAR TO THE SOUTH BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

BY FOLLOWING THIS TRACK FORECAST, FRANCISCO IS CLOSE TO THE
MASCAREIGNES BUT BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT PRESENT ANY
NOTABLE RISK.=

>

2020-02-06 12:41

WTIO31 FMEE 061217 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 72.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 520 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-02-06 12:41

WTIO30 FMEE 061217 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 72.1 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 520 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-02-06 12:39

WTIO31 FMEE 061217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 72.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 520 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, AUCUNE DONNEE NE PERMET DE JUGER DE
LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE FRANCISCO, QUI RESTE DONC ZONE
PERTURBEE. LES IMAGES INFRAROUGE MONTRENT UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE
DE LA CONVECTION DE FRANCISCO QUI SE CONCENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
EST. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX RESTENT ESTIMES A 35KT, EN L'ABSENCE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES DIFFUSIOMETRES.

LA PREVISION EVOLUE AVEC UN LEGER DECALAGE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD SUITE AUX DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DU CENTRE A 12UTC. FRANSCISCO A
DONC BIEN ENTAMER SON RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD. PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE VA S'ORIENTER VERS L'EST-SUD-EST, PRIS DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST IMPACTE
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA CONVECTION ET CES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES VONT
SE MAINTENIR DURABLEMENT (CISAILLEMENT ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE). LE SYSTEME VA DONC EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS FAIBLISSANT GRADUELLEMENT UNIQUEMENT
PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.=

>

2020-02-06 12:39

WTIO30 FMEE 061217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 72.1 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 520 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/07 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THERE IS NO DATA TO ASSESS THE CONSOLIDATION
OF LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF FRANCISCO, WHICH THEREFORE
REMAINS A AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. THE INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A
SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ESTIMATED AT 35KT, IN THE
ABSENCE OF NEW SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK
FOLLOWING THE LAST ESTIMATES FROM THE CENTRE AT 12UTC. FRANSCISCO HAS
THUS STARTED ITS SOUTHWARD CURVATURE. THEREAFTER, THE TRACK WILL BE
ORIENTED EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOW.

THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRONGLY IMPEDES THE CLOUD
PATTERN AND THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR A LONG TIME (STEADY SHEAR AND MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION). THIS
LEADS TO THE FILLING UP OF THE LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY FADING
STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

BY FOLLOWING THIS TRACK FORECAST, FRANCISCO IS CLOSE TO THE
MASCAREIGNES BUT BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT PRESENT ANY
NOTABLE RISK.=

>

2020-02-06 12:08

WTIO20 FMEE 061202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 72.1 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-06 06:50

WTIO31 FMEE 060613 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 72.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 520 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-02-06 06:50

WTIO30 FMEE 060613 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 520 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-02-06 06:48

WTIO31 FMEE 060613
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 72.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 520 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

DANS LA CONTINUITE DES PRECEDENTES DONNEES ASCAT ET MICRO-ONDE, LES
DERNIERES DONNEES MONTRENT ENCORE UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
TRES ALLONGEE QUI REND DIFFICILE LA LOCALISATION PRECISE D'UN CENTRE.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE SSMI DE 0140UTC MONTRE QUE LE CENTRE TEND A SE
CONCENTRER DE NOUVEAU MAIS FRANCISCO RESTE ENCORE CLASSE EN ZONE
PERTURBEE AVEC DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT ENCORE LE COUP DE VENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES ACTIVE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST MAIS AUSSI AU NORD DU SYSTEME DANS LA ZONE DE CONVERGENCE DU
FLUX.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : BIEN QUE LA LOCALISATION
PRECISE SOIT DIFFICILE A ESTIMER, LE SYSTEME ENTAME UN RECOURBEMENT
VERS LE SUD. PAR LA SUITE, LA TRAJECTOIRE VA S'ORIENTER VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST, PRIS DANS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST EST TOUJOURS BIEN
PRESENT ET IMPACTE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA CONVECTION. LES CONDITIONS
S'ANNONCENT MAINTENANT DURABLEMENT DEFAVORABLES (CISAILLEMENT ET
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE) POUR LE SYSTEME QUI
DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS
FAIBLISSANT GRADUELLEMENT UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET
DE GRADIENT.

EN SUIVANT CETTE PREVISION, FRANCISCO SE RAPPROCHE DES MASCAREIGNES
MAIS DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, IL NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE
NOTABLE.=

>

2020-02-06 06:48

WTIO30 FMEE 060613
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 520 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=2.5

IN THE CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA, THE
LATEST DATA STILL SHOW A VERY ELONGATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WHERE
IT IS HARD TO FIND A CIRCULATION CENTER PRECISELY. THE 0140UTC SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE TENDS TO CONCENTRATE AGAIN
BUT FRANCISCO IS STILL CLASSED AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS HOWEVER PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE CONVERGENCE OF THE FLOW.

THE TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE : ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LOCATION IS
DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BEND SOUTHWARDS.
THEREAFTER, THE TRACK WILL BE ORIENTED EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITHIN THE LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.

THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STILL PRESENT AND STRONGLY
IMPEDES THE CLOUD PATTERN. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOW EXPECTED (STEADY SHEAR AND MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION) LEADING
TO THE FILLING UP OF THE LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY FADING STRONG
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

BY FOLLOWING THIS TRACK FORECAST, FRANCISCO IS CLOSE TO THE
MASCAREIGNES BUT BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKENING, IT DOES NOT PRESENT ANY
NOTABLE RISK.=

>

2020-02-06 06:04

WTIO20 FMEE 060602
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 420 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-06 01:16

WTIO31 FMEE 060038 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 71.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 330 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=3.0

>

2020-02-06 01:16

WTIO30 FMEE 060038 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 330 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=3.0

>

2020-02-06 01:13

WTIO31 FMEE 060038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 71.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 330 SO: 170 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 09/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.0 CI=3.0

LES DONNEES COMPLETES DE LA FAUCHEE ASCAT-B D'HIER SOIR ONT MONTRE
UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES TRES ALLONGEE PERMETTANT A PEINE DE
POSITIONNER UN CENTRE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE SSMI DE 2252Z MONTRE UN
CENTRE TOUJOURS MAL DEFINI DE PLUS EN PLUS ELOIGNE DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. DANS CE CONTEXTE, FRANCISCO A ETE
CLASSIFIE EN ZONE PERTURBEE (PAS DE CENTRE DE SURFACE BIEN DEFINI)
AVEC DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT ENCORE LE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST CONTINUE D'AUGMENTER
(25-30 KT A 21Z SELON LE CIMSS) ET IMPACTE SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA
CONFIGURATION SATELLITE. LES CONDITIONS S'ANNONCENT MAINTENANT
DURABLEMENT DEFAVORABLES (CISAILLEMENT ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE) POUR LE SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS FAIBLISSANT GRADUELLEMENT
UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

SANS FIX MICRO-ONDE FIABLE, LA POSITION EST TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON
DE LA MAUVAISE DEFINITION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. AVEC
LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE AUJOURD'HUI, UN RECOURBEMENT DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES EST ENVISAGE.=

>

2020-02-06 01:13

WTIO30 FMEE 060038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 330 SW: 170 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/07 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/09 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0 CI=3.0

COMPLETE ASCAT-B DATA OF LAST NIGHT SHOW A VERY ELONGATED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WHERE IT IS HARD TO FIND A CIRCULATION CENTER. SSMI MW
IMAGERY AT 2252Z STILL SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER INCREASINGLY
DISTANT TO THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT. BASED ON THAT, FRANCISCO IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER (LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE CENTER) WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS HOWEVER PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED AGAIN (25-30 KT
AT 21Z BASED ON CIMSS DATA) AND STRONGLY IMPEDES THE CLOUD PATTERN.
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED (STEADY SHEAR
AND MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION) LEADING TO THE FILLING UP OF THE
LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY FADING STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

WITH NO RELIABLE MW FIX, THE CENTER POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN GENERALLY
WESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOW.=

>

2020-02-06 00:24

WTIO20 FMEE 060021
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (FRANCISCO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 600 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-05 18:55

WTIO31 FMEE 051824 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 70.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 150 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 50 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.5 CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 18:55

WTIO30 FMEE 051824 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 70.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 150 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 50 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5 CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 18:52

WTIO31 FMEE 051824
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 70.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 150 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 50 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=2.5 CI=3.0

LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE AINSI QUE LES DEUX PASS ASCAT A
ET B MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES DE FRANCISCO EST TRES
MAL DEFINI ET RESTE TRES ALLONGE. LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITE EST
CISAILLE AVEC UN CENTRE POSITIONNE JUSTE A L'EXTERIEUR DE LA MASSE
CONVECTIVE QUI SUBIT D'IMPORTANTES FLUCTUATIONS DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST BASEE SUR LES VENTS LES PLUS FIABLES
DES PASS ASCAT.

LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST A AUGMENTE (24 KT A
12Z SELON LE CIMSS) ET IMPACTE MAINTENANT SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LA
CONFIGURATION SATELLITE D'AUTANT QUE LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME SE
FAIT MOINS RAPIDEMENT. LES CONDITIONS S'ANNONCENT MAINTENANT
DURABLEMENT DEFAVORABLES (CISAILLEMENT ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE) POUR LE SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER EN
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN
AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

LES FIX DE LA SOIREE ONT MONTRE QUE LE SYSTEME A REDRESSE VERS L'EST
PLUS QUE PREVU SUR LA FACE SUD D'UNE DORSALE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AVEC LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE CETTE
NUIT ET DEMAIN, UN RECOURBEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST DANS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES EST
ENVISAGE.=

>

2020-02-05 18:52

WTIO30 FMEE 051824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 70.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 150 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 50 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5 CI=3.0

MW DATA OF THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA REVEAL THAT FRANCISCO
HAS AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER WITHIN A STILL VERY ELONGATED CIRCULATION.
THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN IS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED JUST OFF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT IS UNDERGOING STRONG
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE HIGHER RELIABLE WINDS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS.

THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED (24 KT AT 12Z
BASED ON CIMSS DATA) AND NOW STRONGLY IMPEDES THE CLOUD PATTERN AS
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED (STEADY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION) LEADING TO THE FILLING UP OF THE LOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT.

MW FIX HAS SHOWN THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEND EASTWARDS MORE THAN,
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL
RIDGE . AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE TRACK SHOULD TURN
GENERALLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOW.=

>

2020-02-05 18:12

WTIO20 FMEE 051811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 70.5 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-05 12:28

WTIO31 FMEE 051213
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 69.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2020 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 08/02/2020 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2020 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 10/02/2020 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A EVOLUE VERS UN
CDO AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LES SIGNES DE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST (ANALYSE A 19KT A 06Z PAR LE CIMSS) SONT DE
PLUS EN PLUS PRA SENT AVEC UNE CIRCULATION PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSA E
DANS LE QUADRANT OUEST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC
L'ADT DU CIMSS.

UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ FAVORABLES A
L'INTENSIFICATION EXISTE ENCORE EN CETTE FIN DE JOURNA E. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE MODA RA  NORD-OUEST RESTE COMPENSA
PAR UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA  POLAIRE EN ENTRA E
CHAUDE DU JET SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME SE
DECALE EN BORDURE DU JET ET VA SUBIR  UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN ET AU DELA, LES CONDITIONS S'ANNONCENT DURABLEMENT
DEFAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT ALORS EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR
EFFET DE GRADIENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME AVEC PRESENCE D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTEME.
APRES LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN, UN
REDRESSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES EST ENVISAGE. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, ON NOTE UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES DES LA FIN DE JOURNEE EN LIEN AVEC LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2020-02-05 12:28

WTIO30 FMEE 051213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/06 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/07 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/07 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/08 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/08 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/09 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/10 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TOWARDS A CDO
WITH VERY COLD TOPS. THE SIGNS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(ANALYSIS AT 19KT AT 06Z BY CIMSS) ARE INCREASINGLY PRESENT WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE
ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT OF CIMSS.

A SHORT WINDOW OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ENOUGH FAVORABLE TO THE
INTENSIFICATION STILL AT THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMPENSATED BY AN EXCELLENT POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN WARM SUBTROPICAL JET ENTRANCE. FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF MID
TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR. FROM TOMORROW AND BEYOND, UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO THE FILLING UP OF
THE LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS DRIVEN BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS
STEERING FLOW. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE FROM THE END OF THE DAY IN
RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING PHASE.=

>

2020-02-05 12:08

WTIO20 FMEE 051205 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-05 12:02

WTIO20 FMEE 051201
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 450 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-05 09:07

WTXS51 PGTW 050900 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 13S SIO 200205073803
2020020506 13S FRANCISCO  002  01 120 11 SATL 060
T000 170S 0682E 040 R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 181S 0693E 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 189S 0698E 040 R034 070 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 195S 0698E 040 R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 200S 0690E 035 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 208S 0668E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 221S 0647E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.1S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-05 09:06

WTXS31 PGTW 050900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.1S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.9S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-05 09:04

WTXS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 13S SIO 200205073803
2020020506 13S FRANCISCO  002  01 120 11 SATL 060
T000 170S 0682E 040 R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 181S 0693E 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 189S 0698E 040 R034 070 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 195S 0698E 040 R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 200S 0690E 035 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 208S 0668E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 221S 0647E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.1S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.9S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.5S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.0S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.8S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 22.1S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 68.5E.
05FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
647 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
1320020312 137S 643E  25
1320020318 140S 646E  25
1320020400 143S 649E  25
1320020406 146S 651E  25
1320020412 152S 657E  30
1320020418 158S 664E  35
1320020500 164S 672E  35
1320020506 170S 682E  40
NNNN

>

2020-02-05 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 68.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 68.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.1S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.9S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.5S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.0S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.8S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 22.1S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 68.5E.
05FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
647 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT, DEEP
CONVECTION. A 050447Z METOP-B COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS
IS ALSO PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND 2.5 (35
KTS) FROM KNES. TC FRANCISCO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET
BY MARGINAL (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. TC 13S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL IT BEGINS
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. DURING THIS TIME, INCREASING VWS (35-40 KTS) FROM TAU
36 TO 96 WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
STEADILY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE DEGREE
OF SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 (370 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-05 07:04

WTIO31 FMEE 050700 RRA
...............CORRECTIF..............
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 07:04

WTIO30 FMEE 050700 RRA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 07:02

WTIO31 FMEE 050700 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST BIEN
AMELIOREE. AUSSI, LE SYSTEME A A TA  BAPTISA  A 0300Z PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE. DEPUIS, LA CONVECTION RESTE FORTE AVEC LA
FORMATION D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE. POUR AUTANT DES SIGNES DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST (ANALYSE A 18KT A 00Z PAR
LE CIMSS) APPARAISSENT AVEC LA CONVECTION DA CALA E DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC LA PASSE
ASCAT PARTIELLE DE CE MATIN.

UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ FAVORABLES A
L'INTENSIFICATION EXISTE AUJOURD'HUI. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT DE MODA RA  NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT ETRE COMPENSA  PAR UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA  POLAIRE EN ENTRA E CHAUDE DU JET
SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME SE DECALE EN BORDURE
DU JET ET VA SUBIR  UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN ET AU
DELA, LES CONDITIONS S'ANNONCENT DURABLEMENT DEFAVORABLES POUR LE
SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT ALORS EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES
VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME AVEC PRESENCE D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTEME.
APRES LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE AU-DELA DE 24H, UN
REDRESSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES EST ENVISAGE. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, ON NOTE UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES DES LA FIN DE JOURNEE EN LIEN AVEC LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2020-02-05 07:02

WTIO30 FMEE 050700 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS IMPROVED. ALSO, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED AT 0300Z BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES. SINCE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH THE FORMATION OF
A CURVED BAND. FOR ALL THAT, SIGNS OF VERTICAL NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR
APPEAR (ANALYSIS AT 18KT AT 00Z BY CIMSS) WITH CONVECTION SHIFTED IN
THE EASTERN HALF CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNING PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH.

A SHORT WINDOW OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ENOUGH FAVORABLE TO THE
INTENSIFICATION EXISTING TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD BE COMPENSATED BY AN EXCELLENT POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN WARM SUBTROPICAL JET ENTRANCE. FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF MID
TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR. FROM TOMORROW AND BEYOND, UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO THE FILLING UP OF
THE LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS DRIVEN BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS
STEERING FLOW. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE FROM THE END OF THE DAY IN
RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING PHASE.=

>

2020-02-05 06:16

WTIO31 FMEE 050607 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 06:16

WTIO30 FMEE 050607 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-02-05 06:14

WTIO31 FMEE 050607
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SO: 410 NO:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2020 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/02/2020 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 08/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 10/02/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST BIEN
AMELIOREE. AUSSI, LE SYSTEME A A TA  BAPTISA  A 0300Z PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE. DEPUIS, LA CONVECTION RESTE FORTE AVEC LA
FORMATION D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE. POUR AUTANT DES SIGNES DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST (ANALYSE A 18KT A 00Z PAR
LE CIMSS) APPARAISSENT AVEC LA CONVECTION DA CALA E DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC LA PASSE
ASCAT PARTIELLE DE CE MATIN.

UNE COURTE FENETRE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ FAVORABLES A
L'INTENSIFICATION EXISTE AUJOURD'HUI. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT DE MODA RA  NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT ETRE COMPENSA  PAR UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TA  POLAIRE EN ENTRA E CHAUDE DU JET
SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME SE DECALE EN BORDURE
DU JET ET VA SUBIR  UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN ET AU
DELA, LES CONDITIONS S'ANNONCENT DURABLEMENT DEFAVORABLES POUR LE
SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT ALORS EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE AVEC DES
VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS LOIN AU SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EST PILOTEE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE PRESENTE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME AVEC PRESENCE D'UNE
FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTEME.
APRES LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ATTENDUE AU-DELA DE 24H, UN
REDRESSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES EST ENVISAGE. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE
EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, ON NOTE UNE FORTE
DISPERSION DES GUIDANCES DES LA FIN DE JOURNEE EN LIEN AVEC LA PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

2020-02-05 06:14

WTIO30 FMEE 050607
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO)

2.A POSITION 2020/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 540 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW:
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/08 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/09 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS IMPROVED. ALSO, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED AT 0300Z BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES. SINCE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH THE FORMATION OF
A CURVED BAND. FOR ALL THAT, SIGNS OF VERTICAL NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR
APPEAR (ANALYSIS AT 18KT AT 00Z BY CIMSS) WITH CONVECTION SHIFTED IN
THE EASTERN HALF CIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNING PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH.

A SHORT WINDOW OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ENOUGH FAVORABLE TO THE
INTENSIFICATION EXISTING TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD BE COMPENSATED BY AN EXCELLENT POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN WARM SUBTROPICAL JET ENTRANCE. FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF MID
TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR. FROM TOMORROW AND BEYOND, UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO THE FILLING UP OF
THE LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS DRIVEN BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-EAST AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THE TRACK
SHOULD TURN WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS
STEERING FLOW. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE FROM THE END OF THE DAY IN
RELATION WITH THE WEAKENING PHASE.=

>

2020-02-05 06:08

WTIO20 FMEE 050605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 05/02/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FRANCISCO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 290 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-02-04 21:17

WTXS31 PGTW 042100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041451ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-04 21:06

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041451ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.7S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.7S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.0S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 66.8E.
04FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A DIRECT 041740Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST. THIS IMAGE
PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY,
WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT. LOCATED IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ROBUST
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
BEGIN TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ACT
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THAT, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL TURN
TC 13S TO A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. CONCURRENTLY,
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24.
HOWEVER, DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 24.
SPECIFICALLY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION, CAUSING
IMPACTS TO THE STR STEERING TC 13S IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DUE
TO THESE DIFFERENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 041500).//
NNNN

>

2020-02-04 21:00

WTXS51 PGTW 042100 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 13S SIO 200204203957
2020020418 13S THIRTEEN   001  01 130 14 SATL 030
T000 158S 0664E 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 172S 0679E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 182S 0687E 045 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 187S 0689E 040 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 191S 0688E 040 R034 050 NE QD 115 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 197S 0672E 035 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 210S 0654E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-04 20:59

WTXS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 13S SIO 200204203957
2020020418 13S THIRTEEN   001  01 130 14 SATL 030
T000 158S 0664E 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 172S 0679E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 182S 0687E 045 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 187S 0689E 040 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 191S 0688E 040 R034 050 NE QD 115 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 197S 0672E 035 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 210S 0654E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.7S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.7S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.0S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 66.8E.
04FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//
1320020312 137S 643E  25
1320020318 140S 646E  25
1320020400 143S 649E  25
1320020406 146S 651E  25
1320020412 149S 653E  30
1320020418 158S 664E  35
NNNN
 0000006300
981
NCNC01 EGRR 042100
03482 444 00091 10052 29999=
 0000006300
982
NCNC01 EGRR 042100
03853 444 00088 10067 20000=
 0000006300
983
NCNC01 EGRR 042100
03005 444 00068 10034 20000=

>