Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

08 Feb 2020 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (08 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	127 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	84,079	+
	Mozambique	52
	Madagascar	84,027

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	225	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 04:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 05:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 01:15	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:15	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:15	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:00	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 04:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Feb 2020 06:00	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.