Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

09 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (09 Feb 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	54 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mozambique	2,657
50-100 mm	Mozambique, Madagascar	497,037	+
	Mozambique	496,760
	Madagascar	277

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	284	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Feb 2020 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Feb 2020 20:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 20:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 23:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 23:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 23:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 23:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 23:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 20:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Andranira	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 20:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:30	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 18:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:15	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 20:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:45	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:45	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:45	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:45	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 21:45	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 20:30	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Feb 2020 19:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.