Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.3 m (15 Mar 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 2.3 m 691 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique761263 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 3.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique592088 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe697001
+
Mozambique665706 
Zimbabwe31295 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe2266963
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo233 
Tanzania52 
Mozambique1608630 
Madagascar1611 
Zimbabwe656437 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa3777694
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo143741 
Burundi2877 
Tanzania241144 
Zambia744298 
Malawi966541 
Mozambique919400 
Madagascar79724 
Zimbabwe662020 
South Africa17949 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 3.6 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.3m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 05:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.3
15 Mar 2019 01:45 Damiao Mozambique  2.0
15 Mar 2019 05:15 Divinhe Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 05:15 Chiloane Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 01:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 01:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Panaca Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Tama Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.4
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Jo Mozambique  0.8
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.7
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.7
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Catine Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 04:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Amado Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:15 China Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 14:00 Richmond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 14:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Malindi Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Palma Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Boala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:30 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
16 Mar 2019 14:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link