Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (16 Mar 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.4 m 517 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 15 Mar 2019 18:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique10 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique207201
+
Mozambique143051 
Zimbabwe64150 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar4555500
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo32814 
Tanzania433 
Zambia6128 
Malawi453891 
Mozambique2758144 
Zimbabwe1302866 
Madagascar1224 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa10726228
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo689887 
Burundi159941 
Tanzania74914 
Zambia406166 
Malawi1993225 
Mozambique1915439 
Zimbabwe5198878 
Madagascar33473 
South Africa254305 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 1214 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 783 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 702 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 15 Mar 2019 18:00 517 4.8 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Colchester, South Africa. This height is estimated for 16 Mar 2019 12:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Mar 2019 12:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
15 Mar 2019 22:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 22:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 22:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
16 Mar 2019 13:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 23:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
18 Mar 2019 18:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
18 Mar 2019 18:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
18 Mar 2019 18:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Memba Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Formone Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 07:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
16 Mar 2019 07:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Catine Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link