Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 180 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (11 Mar 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 180 km/h 0.8 m 848 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar75786 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 530 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Malawi, Madagascar, South Africa534897
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo51924 
Tanzania134186 
Malawi85942 
Madagascar261339 
South Africa1506 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho9291507
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1252327 
Burundi129820 
Tanzania2416177 
Zambia2635181 
Malawi472263 
Mozambique173485 
Comoros45970 
Mayotte28390 
Madagascar348287 
South Africa692030 
Lesotho1097577 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 530 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Mar 2019 02:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.8
11 Mar 2019 02:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.8
11 Mar 2019 02:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.8
11 Mar 2019 02:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.8
11 Mar 2019 02:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.8
11 Mar 2019 02:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.8
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Onara Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Baly Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Metula Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 22:15 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Richmond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:45 Barra Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:15 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Jo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Marere Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 23:45 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Ali Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Mite Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Acache Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Tari Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:45 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link