Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (15 Mar 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 1.6 m 1214 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique14583 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 119 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 4.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe9970
+
Mozambique9957 
Zimbabwe13 
750-1000 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe33147
+
Mozambique29634 
Zimbabwe3513 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe183581
+
Mozambique141876 
Zimbabwe41705 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1501505
+
Mozambique1403333 
Zimbabwe98172 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa2380650
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1231 
Malawi274036 
Mozambique1405271 
Madagascar15 
Zimbabwe699991 
South Africa106 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa9130755
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo596037 
Tanzania71161 
Zambia774603 
Malawi4150409 
Mozambique2068224 
Madagascar40923 
Zimbabwe1366891 
South Africa62507 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 1214 4.1 million
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.6
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.0
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.8
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.4
16 Mar 2019 12:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
16 Mar 2019 19:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 19:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 China Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
16 Mar 2019 19:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 19:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Amado Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link