Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (11 Mar 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 194 km/h 0.9 m 760 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique35121
+
Madagascar35095 
Mozambique26 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique102925
+
Tanzania19189 
Malawi83669 
Mozambique67 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa4404039
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1776061 
Burundi39170 
Tanzania1173547 
Zambia706113 
Malawi309843 
Mozambique184562 
Madagascar170899 
South Africa43844 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 100 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2019 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.9
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Tama Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Onara Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.5
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.5
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Jo Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 08:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 08:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 10:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 10:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Barra Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:30 Colchester South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Catine Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 China Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Paje Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Malindi Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Marere Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:00 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Tavari Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link