Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 180 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (15 Mar 00:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 180 km/h 2.4 m 649 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique802256 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 2.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique90426 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1009874
+
Mozambique1009871 
Zimbabwe3 
100-250 mmTanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Zimbabwe1464269
+
Tanzania36 
Zambia21 
Malawi35 
Mozambique1391191 
Madagascar38 
Zimbabwe72948 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa2705037
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo136975 
Burundi56062 
Tanzania395288 
Zambia275221 
Malawi181851 
Mozambique831191 
Madagascar54866 
Zimbabwe761209 
South Africa12374 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 2.6 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 00:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Damiao Mozambique  1.9
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Divinhe Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Chiloane Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Nhangau Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Tama Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Jonja Mozambique  1.4
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Jo Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 05:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Catine Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 07:15 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 04:30 Amado Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Barra Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Richmond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Memba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Formone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 17:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 04:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 04:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Beula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 11:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 11:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:30 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:30 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link