Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Mar 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 155 km/h 0.6 m 1148 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, South Africa46699
+
Madagascar46521 
South Africa178 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 -
- - - - - Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 710 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar25160 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar687646
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo6629 
Tanzania53786 
Zambia146 
Malawi337551 
Mozambique2418 
Comoros10387 
Madagascar276729 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho15473879
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo608285 
Burundi266882 
Tanzania1691089 
Zambia1473021 
Malawi6449847 
Mozambique709420 
Comoros101829 
Mayotte112088 
Madagascar228873 
Zimbabwe49520 
South Africa3385448 
Lesotho397577 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 710 thousand
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Mayotte, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 13:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 13:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 13:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Onara Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 13:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 13:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 23:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Metula Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Jo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 23:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Napito Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Amado Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 23:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Barra Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:30 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Larde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 09:30 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 23:30 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Naidooville South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Park Rynie South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Umkomaas South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Amanzimtoti South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Ali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:45 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Baly Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:15 Siane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link