Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (14 Mar 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 184 km/h 2.2 m 592 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique40996 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 370 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique961 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar366241
+
Tanzania9008 
Malawi51313 
Mozambique305918 
Madagascar2 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa3619444
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo460130 
Burundi145119 
Tanzania646503 
Zambia1291155 
Malawi149403 
Mozambique668207 
Madagascar55095 
South Africa203832 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 370 thousand
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Chofandicho, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Panaca Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Tama Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Jonja Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Nhangau Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Damiao Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Bingue Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Rupia Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Machesse Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.2
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Jo Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Colchester South Africa  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Amado Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Barra Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 01:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Memba Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Formone Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 00:15 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:45 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Paje Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 05:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 01:30 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 01:30 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 01:30 Foque Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 01:30 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link