Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 187 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (15 Mar 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 187 km/h 2.4 m 667 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique747745 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique283758 
100-250 mmTanzania, Zambia, Mozambique987408
+
Tanzania5083 
Zambia1266 
Mozambique981059 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa2352970
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo141942 
Burundi177074 
Tanzania469252 
Zambia669720 
Malawi123290 
Mozambique599683 
Madagascar89128 
Zimbabwe54709 
South Africa28172 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 1.3 million
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Damiao, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 01:00 Damiao Mozambique  2.4
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Nhangau Mozambique  2.3
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  2.3
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Panaca Mozambique  2.3
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Tama Mozambique  2.1
15 Mar 2019 01:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.1
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Divinhe Mozambique  1.7
15 Mar 2019 01:15 Chiloane Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Bingue Mozambique  1.0
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Jo Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Catine Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 05:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 22:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Barra Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Beula Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:15 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 14:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 03:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 23:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 15:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Malindi Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Memba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Formone Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:30 Siane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Paje Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link