Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Mar 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 158 km/h 0.5 m 770 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, South Africa30805
+
Madagascar30409 
South Africa396 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 520 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar41473 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, South Africa476884
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo21155 
Tanzania27722 
Zambia1537 
Malawi107642 
Madagascar314192 
South Africa4636 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho10174316
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo716951 
Burundi251536 
Tanzania1549138 
Zambia1096634 
Malawi2136458 
Mozambique276027 
Comoros58377 
Madagascar211750 
South Africa3797283 
Lesotho80162 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 520 thousand
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 14:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 14:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 14:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 14:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 14:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 14:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Onara Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 15:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 15:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 15:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.4
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 18:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Amado Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Barra Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 17:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:45 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Larde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Memba Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Formone Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Naidooville South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Park Rynie South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Umkomaas South Africa  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:15 Amanzimtoti South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 02:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 15:15 Siane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 13:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:45 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link