Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (10 Mar 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 162 km/h 0.9 m 1083 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar85254 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 840 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar65944 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Lesotho, South Africa771668
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo192192 
Burundi2881 
Tanzania60438 
Zambia1 
Malawi204405 
Madagascar205535 
South Africa104827 
Lesotho1389 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho13912537
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1499482 
Burundi337628 
Tanzania1957085 
Zambia2219385 
Malawi2455925 
Mozambique521106 
Madagascar339837 
South Africa3753370 
Lesotho828719 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 840 thousand
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 10:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 10:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.9
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Onara Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:15 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Memba Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Formone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Amado Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Barra Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 17:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 17:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 17:30 Jo Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 17:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 05:30 Baly Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 23:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:15 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Beula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:30 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:30 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Catine Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 17:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Palma Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Boala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link