Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 166 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (10 Mar 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 166 km/h 1.1 m 975 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Madagascar2822 
Tropical StormMadagascar74821 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar1413 
250-500 mmMadagascar52204 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, South Africa488887
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo22946 
Burundi1153 
Tanzania79676 
Zambia55345 
Malawi173782 
Mozambique37380 
Madagascar113886 
South Africa4494 
Lesotho225 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho13841072
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo2525215 
Burundi319238 
Tanzania1923352 
Zambia3439485 
Malawi1589246 
Mozambique688073 
Madagascar227606 
South Africa1952994 
Lesotho1175863 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 540 thousand
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 20:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  1.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  1.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  1.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  1.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Manampea Madagascar  1.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Antsafy Madagascar  1.0
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Onara Madagascar  0.8
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.8
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.8
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 06:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 06:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 06:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:15 Metula Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 03:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 03:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Baly Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Momade Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Bandarini Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:00 Richmond South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Jo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:15 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:45 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:45 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:30 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Beula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Palma Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Boala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Fish River Camping Site South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 01:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Donge Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link