Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (11 Mar 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 184 km/h 0.9 m 635 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar65469 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 230 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar226497
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo20079 
Tanzania78768 
Zambia13663 
Malawi51444 
Mozambique347 
Madagascar62196 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho6945784
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo835395 
Burundi17208 
Tanzania1705309 
Zambia3029558 
Malawi366391 
Mozambique234253 
Madagascar253475 
South Africa503468 
Lesotho727 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 230 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2019 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.9
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Onara Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.7
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.6
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.6
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 04:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.4
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.4
12 Mar 2019 04:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 05:30 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Barra Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 16:45 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Colchester South Africa  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 15:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 15:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Metula Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 04:45 Jo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 04:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 10:45 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 23:30 Richmond South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Paje Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 23:30 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:15 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 15:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Ibo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:30 Watamu Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:30 Malindi Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:30 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:30 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 09:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 14:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Marere Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:30 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Napito Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 07:45 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Mite Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 04:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link