Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (10 Mar 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 158 km/h 0.7 m 814 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar67121 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 680 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMalawi, Madagascar23997
+
Malawi5627 
Madagascar18370 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Lesotho, South Africa654491
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo117680 
Tanzania154544 
Zambia602 
Malawi159974 
Mozambique675 
Madagascar188457 
South Africa32333 
Lesotho226 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho11563771
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1192203 
Burundi276603 
Tanzania2208123 
Zambia2220626 
Malawi1422440 
Mozambique553343 
Madagascar304757 
South Africa1944995 
Lesotho1440681 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 680 thousand
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Ankirijibe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 20:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.7
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Onara Madagascar  0.6
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.5
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 16:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 16:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 16:45 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 04:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Memba Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Formone Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 21:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 13:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Tama Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Metula Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Momade Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 08:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 08:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Jo Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 14:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 06:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 06:45 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 09:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 09:15 Malindi Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 09:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 09:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:30 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:30 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 16:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:45 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Fish River Camping Site South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:00 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 16:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 10:15 Palma Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 10:15 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 10:15 Boala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 10:15 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 10:15 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:45 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 08:45 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 08:45 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 11:15 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Catine Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 21:15 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 22:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link