Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 166 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (14 Mar 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 166 km/h 2.4 m 635 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mozambique4 
Tropical StormMozambique788023 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 Few people
- - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe17937
+
Mozambique17873 
Zimbabwe64 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1268094
+
Mozambique1209759 
Zimbabwe58335 
100-250 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique1424045
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo313 
Tanzania36 
Mozambique1050256 
Madagascar3029 
Zimbabwe370411 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa4113841
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo377061 
Burundi48332 
Tanzania152909 
Zambia355328 
Malawi173771 
Mozambique1108221 
Madagascar124577 
Zimbabwe1762647 
South Africa10995 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 2.7 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 23:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.4
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Divinhe Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Chiloane Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Damiao Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhangau Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Panaca Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Tama Mozambique  1.2
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Jo Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 22:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Catine Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:15 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Memba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Formone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 20:00 Richmond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Siane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:00 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 22:30 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Afo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 19:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:00 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:15 Napito Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 14:15 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Donge Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link