Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (16 Mar 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.4 m 702 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe7478
+
Mozambique6689 
Zimbabwe789 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique390978
+
Mozambique276921 
Zimbabwe114057 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar5187811
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo185543 
Zambia5242 
Mozambique3038409 
Malawi544131 
Zimbabwe1414463 
Madagascar23 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa9761840
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo650469 
Burundi168572 
Tanzania30299 
Zambia744943 
Mozambique2045613 
Malawi3719721 
Zimbabwe2371083 
Madagascar20663 
South Africa10477 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 1214 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 783 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 702 5.6 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Colchester, South Africa. This height is estimated for 16 Mar 2019 12:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Mar 2019 12:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 22:30 Divinhe Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 22:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Tama Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:30 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 21:30 Jo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 21:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 21:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 18:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 18:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 17:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 21:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link