Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (14 Mar 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 2.2 m 643 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique583451 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 1.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique702 
250-500 mmMozambique712676 
100-250 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe903758
+
Tanzania837 
Zambia343 
Malawi16 
Mozambique887005 
Zimbabwe15557 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa3645657
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1271711 
Burundi89162 
Tanzania607370 
Zambia325348 
Malawi131135 
Mozambique1031005 
Madagascar61728 
Zimbabwe78343 
South Africa49855 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 1.6 million
- - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.2m in Nhangau, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Nhangau Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Panaca Mozambique  2.2
14 Mar 2019 22:45 Damiao Mozambique  2.1
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Tama Mozambique  2.1
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.9
15 Mar 2019 02:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.7
15 Mar 2019 03:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
15 Mar 2019 03:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Bingue Mozambique  1.2
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Jo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 21:45 Beula Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 21:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 21:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 21:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 21:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 23:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 23:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Memba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Formone Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 21:30 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 21:30 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 21:30 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 21:30 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 22:30 Watamu Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 22:30 Malindi Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 22:30 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 22:30 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 23:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 23:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:30 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 21:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 20:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 20:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 20:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 20:30 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Larde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:45 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link